震惊，第四部分(分裂的我们)

We began this series with a review of the likely economic policies and their implications of the new Trump administration, 并讨论了投资者面临的长期挑战. We would have undertaken this exercise for a Clinton administration, but the election of Donald Trump represents a stark break from the broad consensus of the past 70 years favoring free (or freer) movement of goods, capital and people; the establishment of multinational treaties and supranational institutions to establish rules governing international relations; and enforcement of this world order primarily by the United States military.

像这样, we expanded our review of the consequences of this election beyond the immediate implications for investors. 上周, we examined the foreign policy implications of a Trump presidency, how this likely marks the end of an era of American influence in world affairs (http://blog.angelesadvisors.com/2016/12/shock-part-3-the-end-of-pax-americana/).

The Trump presidency will likely have large consequences in world affairs. The impacts from reversing the processes of globalization, 称之为去全球化, 会持续数年吗, 甚至几十年. 一些群体可能会从这种去全球化中受益, 但整个世界不会, manifested economically by lower growth and politically by rising conflicts.

唐纳德·特朗普的当选在国际上具有重要意义, 但可能对美国社会影响最大, 因为它暴露了政治的可怕创伤, 经济和社会两极分化 that have been festering for decades.

Research by Keith Poole (University of 休斯顿) and Howard Rosenthal (Princeton) has shown that more than 90% of Congressional voting today is explained simply by ideology, 是一个多世纪以来最多的. 十年前, 根据皮尤研究中心, a minority of Democrats and Republicans viewed each other unfavorably. 今天, nearly 50% of each party sees the other not just unfavorably, 而是对国家福祉的威胁.

Political polarization has not led, but rather reflects, the growing socioeconomic divide. Income and wealth are more concentrated in the top than at any time in a century. Note that this is true worldwide, just especially so for the US.

Globalization has made the world richer, but the benefits of globalization have been uneven. When growth was high, there was enough wealth to go around: the rising tide did lift all boats. 但近几十年来, the gains from globalization have accrued mostly to the middle classes in developing countries and to the upper classes in developed economies. The middle class in the developed world has largely been squeezed out of the gains in global prosperity. Bruno Milanovic of The World Bank created this graphic of global income growth, 哪一个被称为“象鼻”图, 显示全球收入增长的赢家和落后者.

正如政治和经济两极分化一样令人痛苦, 最令人不安的是日益扩大的社会分化. 精英们就读于同一所学校, 彼此结婚, and are more familiar with London and Hong Kong than with Wyoming or West Virginia (where Trump carried 70% of the vote).

Arthur Brooks of the American Enterprise Institute speaks of, 不是收入差距, 而是尊严的鸿沟. 在过去的50年里, the percentage of working men outside the workforce has more than doubled, 从10%到22%. 25-64岁男性的就业人口比为6.8% lower today than in 1930 (which was not a good year, if I recall). 没有工作的男性结婚的可能性较小, 除了少数完全隔离的僧侣, how else is one’s dignity defined but through work and family? Last year, Anne Case and Angus Deaton of Princeton 冲击ed us with research (http://www.pnas.org/content/112/49.toc) that middle aged (45-54) white American men were the only demographic that experienced increased 莫特ality over the past decade. 自1999年以来，肝硬化患者增加了50%, 自杀率上升78%, and drug and alcohol poisoning up 323% for this demographic (see second chart).

把这些点yabo亚博网站登录起来并不难. We’ve become a more divided society, as we’ve become richer. The post-war world order delivered prosperity to most people, until recently. 在过去的几十年, gains accrued to the billions in the new middle classes of developing countries, 对富人来说. 对于发达国家的中产阶级来说, 他们的收入, 他们的财富, 他们的尊严充其量只是停滞不前, 对很多人来说已经恶化了.

This is a failure of enlightened leadership of both sides of the political spectrum. Conservatives promised that the gains of wealth would be shared fairly, 随着不平等的加剧，他们没有采取任何行动. Liberals chose to confiscate (I mean redistribute) wealth from the rich to the poor, 以更多的税收和法规阻碍经济增长, and further divided our society by pursuing identity politics, 在我们的共同利益之上强调我们的分歧.

I don’t know if we will be able to bridge the many gaps in our society. Does anyone else see parallels today with Dickens’ description of the French Revolution:

那是最好的时代, 那是最糟糕的时期, 那是智慧的时代, 那是一个愚蠢的时代, 那是信仰的时代, 那是一个充满怀疑的时代, 那是光明的季节, 那是黑暗的季节, 这是希望的源泉, 那是一个绝望的冬天, 我们拥有一切, 我们面前什么也没有, 我们都要直接去天堂, 简而言之，我们都是直接往相反的方向走, 那个时期到目前为止和现在差不多。.

特朗普助燃, 促进和利用政治, 经济和社会两极分化, 但这不是他造成的. 他的当选就是这些分歧的结果. The consequences of his election will impact the economy and diminish US influence in world affairs. Donald Trump will not bring the country together for the simple reason that he does not see it in his self-interest to do so. No political leader has been able to do so, and I’m not sure any can or will.

尽我们所能?希望将来自普通人, 跨越我们国家的许多分歧去看, 要理解, to empathize and to commit ourselves to Lincoln’s “more perfect union.让这成为我们的新年决心吧.

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